Many people predict that mobile devices will be the only important user interface platform in the so-called "post-PC" future. Some even recommend designing websites for mobile first, and then modifying the design for the desktop PC as an afterthought.
... then comes the inevitable:
Although it makes for a good story to claim that something new will kill the old, things rarely work out that way. As Peter Zollman once said, "with the possible exception of the town crier, a new medium has never put an old medium out of business." Despite TV, we still have radio — and, for that matter, live theater. In the computer industry, we still have mainframes, and IBM harvests billions each year accordingly.
The takeaway from his latest piece, Transmedia design for 3 screens - make that 5:
Nielsen's probably right in terms of UI development splitting out across devices, but what about PCs remaining important? It's contentious, but will it ring true?